Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
